On the momentous occasion of the 30th memorial of South Africa’s maiden democratic election which falls this year on May 29, the nation steps into another significant electoral event. This election could potentially signal a significant shift in the nation’s post-apartheid era. The African National Congress (ANC), the political party that has been in power since the country’s transition, faces the possibility of losing the majority for the first instance and consequently needing to consider undesirable coalition arrangements. The cause of this decline lies in prevalent social inequality and corruption, which has weakened the ANC’s grasp on power.
While it’s generally anticipated that the ANC will retain its status as the largest party, polls suggest growing dissatisfaction with their performance could result in a drop in support to as low as 40%, significantly down from the 57% received in 2019.
The major challenge originates from Jacob Zuma, the former president and ex-leader of the ANC, who was ousted for corruption. Now, Zuma is leading a populist campaign with his new party, uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), named to honour the ANC’s former highly respected military wing. He is poised to secure victory in his native province of KwaZulu-Natal. Alongside radical left allies, he may emerge as a crucial player in a left-focused coalition.
The Democratic Alliance (DA), the existing main opposition, managing the provincial government in the Western Cape, is expected to finish second. An ANC-DA coalition would promote a centrist-liberal economic strategy.
Underpinning this epoch-making election is a new interpretation of the struggle for liberation narrative for a younger, jobless generation that doesn’t remember apartheid. A particular focus is on Nelson Mandela’s legacy. Critics assert that Mandela, the leader of South Africa’s freedom fight, capitulated too easily to the previous ruling power. Critics argue that the pacific and non-violent shift came at the cost of accepting a neo-liberal stance and not confronting white privilege.
Attributing the world’s highest income disparities, rampant criminal activity, economic degradation, and societal breakdown to white privilege that still persists, Zuma and MK have taken on the control of the liberation movement. They demand the reappropriation of land and manufacturing units. The face of their banners is not Nelson Mandela anymore, but his late wife, Winnie Madikizela-Mandela, a brave anti-apartheid activist who distanced herself from her spouse and became a symbol of the ANC’s most separatist faction.
However, the widespread disgruntlement in the populous townships towards the ANC is not merely an outcome of economic downfall. In his recent account, Zuma, like Trump, swerves around his own legacy of uncontrolled corruption during his presidency, involving bribes and favours to his close associates, a period for which he eventually served time. But the vast degree of this is well recognised by many.
The revelation of this by the current ANC administration under President Cyril Ramaphosa came quite late. The true narrative will be whether or not they receive any acknowledgment for bringing this to light.