In Tuesday’s lengthy Dáil debate on the Stardust apology, Catherine Connolly, a left-leaning independent representative from Galway who holds the seat previously occupied by the esteemed President Michael D Higgins, made an impactful contribution. In her speech, which concluded a particularly emotional session, Connolly articulated a powerful narrative. “Right from the start,” she asserted, “a story was crafted by those in positions of power. Those in power have maintained control, and this narrative has sustained itself until today. Now, the truth has been unveiled, and the Taoiseach has had to assert their innocence publicly. This was known from the beginning, but the dominating forces manipulated the narrative through state institutions… The mighty protect their own.”
Reflected throughout the week, both in and out of Dáil, was this interpretation of the Stardust tragedy – a battle between weak and the strong. It details how the establishment’s political heads dispassionately acted against the common man, whose lives were shattered by the catastrophe. Given the state’s subsequent response to the disaster and its handling for a considerable duration afterwards, opposing this interpretation seems challenging.
Nevertheless, many proponents implicitly suggest the enduring relevance of this “wicked elite vs righteous public” paradigm. This underpins the populist critique of political landscape here and internationally. Whether this worldview continues to hold under present analysis is debatable – the apology from a Fine Gael Taoiseach puts a dent in this theory, surely? Despite this, one cannot ignore its unyielding influence over politics in this decade.
Allowing this perspective to stand uncontested, the question arises: why? Why, as Connolly claims, can the powerful safeguard their own? In the early 1980s, it may have been a conceivable notion when Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael delivered an incontestable duopoly in Irish politics. During the three general elections in 1981 and 1982, the joint votes for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil amounted to just under 84 per cent.
However, the current climate provides a stark contrast. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael struggle to reach a combined 40 per cent in the polls. In the last decade, since 2011’s three elections, their average combined vote stands at 47 per cent.
Why does the power continue to remain with them, you ask? Well, the reasoning is simple – they are the rulers of the Government. And the rationale behind that? The Irish political scene’s left-wing parties have chosen division over unity, handled the prospect of power with caution and rejected the need for compromise inherent in forming government. Thus, they have given the reins of government to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, expressing complaints from the periphery, comfortable with the fact that no one has ever lost their constituency for heavily criticising any ruling party.
Take into account how left-leaning parties have fled from the potential of power, and thus compromise and accountability, following the past two electoral processes. Indeed, this would have necessitated striking a deal with Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. However, they would, in turn, have gained sufficient control to keep the powerful in check, should they wish to do so.
Only one party from the left showed mettle – the Greens. They have been awarded the most ecological government to date. Have they accomplished all their aspirations? Certainly not. But judging by their attitude at the recent conference, they’ve acquired enough to make this endeavor valuable. Might they risk losing their seats? Perhaps. But I doubt it. And even if they do, they’ll return to try again, because they comprehend that entering government is essential to realising political goals.
Will the remaining left-wing parties – and independent members – grasp this principle? It doesn’t seem likely. The independents fiercely protect their freedom, averse to the thought of being affiliated with anything as murky as membership of a whip-controlled party. The Social Democrats continue to react sourly to queries regarding a merger or alliance with the Labour Party. The government will never be socialist enough to satisfy People Before Profit. Consequently, the left, excluding Sinn Féin, continues to be fragmented, feeble and inefficacious.
To perceive it from another perspective: there are a total of 36 TDs when you sum up the Greens, Labour, Social Democrats, People Before Profits, and the independent members from the left technical group. Sinn Féin, currently matches this with 36 TDs, as does Fianna Fáil. Fine Gael lags slightly with 33 TDs.
This is not merely a question of “what if”, but also a contemplation of what is yet to come. Sinn Féin has witnessed a decreasing trend in its support in recent years, leading to the vanishing possibility of a left-wing government functioning without the influence of either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. This situation will persist as long as left-wing parties and TDs in Dáil continue to remain fragmented.
The rising strain brought forth by immigration has injected a new kind of volatility into our political landscape, as right-wing Independents instrumentalise the issue. In response, Sinn Féin has been retreating and consistently emphasising that they do not advocate for an open border policy – a position universally held.
This reaction is indicative of their concerns regarding Independents capitalising on this issue – and who are, evidently, positioning themselves to form a coalition with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil post the impending elections. While I remain cynical of this outcome, however, one cannot completely dismiss it if other parties remain inactive.
It prompts one to question what it would necessitate for left-wing politicians to rise and express a shared set of values that could potentially lay the groundwork for a governing coalition.
In some ways, the continued governance of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil is less surprising despite their support being halved. Ultimately, they are the ones who possess the strongest will for power.