Global climate “conferences of the parties”, or “Cops” as termed by the UN, have two distinctly opposing perspectives. One school of thought recognises it may not be the perfect method, but it is an effort to unite almost 200 nations to tackle the rapid heating of the earth due to human-induced carbon emissions. This platform calls together every participant, attracting leading expertise from around the globe, such as climate change scientists under IPCC, industries and financial institutions making significant progress in decarbonising their operations, alongside climate activists and NGOs.
However, there is another viewpoint that portrays these conferences as burdensome, worsening longstanding issues due to the slow pace at which consensus is reached. The procedure is seen as an insufficient response to the numerous and intensifying extreme weather occurrences, coupled with escalating climate migration. Observers argue that the credibility of these conferences continues to be eroded due to them predominantly being held by oil-rich nations.
For instance, Cop28 was located in Dubai last year, with Sultan Al Jaber – the CEO of UAE’s state-owned oil firm – serving as convenor. Mukhtar Babayev, who previously managed Azerbaijan’s oil company for nearly a quarter of a century before taking up the role of Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources, is the president of Cop29. Climate advocacy groups point out this pattern as evidence of a flawed UN process, with an urgent demand for a significant revision of the Cops framework, which up to now has allowed nations like Saudi Arabia, Russia, India, and the US to single-handedly thwart decisions which would otherwise be passed.
Research by the UK-focused campaign group Global Witness revealed that BP, in collaboration with its project partners, has pumped $35 billion into Azerbaijan’s government for oil and gas production since 2020.
Prominent climatologist, Michael Mann, recently penned in the Los Angeles Times that these conferences have largely lost the trust of young climate campaigners who feel deceived by a system heavily skewed towards polluters. Given the colossal conflict of interest, he urged that oil industry executives should be strictly prohibited from significantly influencing or presiding over such summits.
According to Prof John Sweeney from Maynooth University, a veteran of 13 Cops, the events do not demonstrate the required urgency considering the severity of the climate crisis.
“According to John Sweeney, delegations often consist of segregated sections with individually assigned, limited briefs. Frequently in defense mode rather than gearing up for forward-thinking action, these self-contained units are particularly prevalent in jurisdictions with autocratic governance where there’s a lot at stake for certain negotiators.
COP27 in Egypt, says Sweeney, epitomised the recurring split between the affluent nations and their less prosperous counterparts. This division has been throwing a wrench in the way of advances for almost 30 years. Mainly, financially challenged countries from the Global South appeal for funding in order to adapt and evolve while the wealthier nations of the Global North, barring a few exceptions, are hesitant to release funds on suspicions of misuse, spiralling reparations, or establishing historical precedence.
However, during COP28, an unexpected early accord was reached on establishing a fund to compensate for loss and damages, a fiscal arrangement aimed at giving crucial assistance to nations susceptible to climate-induced obstacles. ‘Going into the meeting, the chairperson was under scrutiny due to rumours of partiality, hence, an early success was vital to stimulate any sort of progress’, adds Sweeney.
The conference’s initial positive drive was somewhat offset by climate activist Mary Robinson’s critical stance on Al Jaber’s interpretation of the scientific data backing the 1.5-degree warming restraint and news reports regarding supposed negotiations with African nations about their oil and gas resources during the course of the conference.
A basic strategy for allocation of funds appears to agreeable, but disputes about which situations are the result of climate change and which nations should add to the fund are anticipated to persist, forecasts Sweeney. To avoid internal societal backlash and enforced changes in day-to-day lifestyle, wealthy nations and petrostates are likely to invest more and more to tackle the problem.
‘Transitioning away from fossil fuels’, a standard phrase used in COP discussions, shows a slight progress, however, it basically commits no one to take immediate action, states Sweeney. In his personal opinion, Eu’s pledge to gradually roll out carbon border adjustments could be a method to introduce the issue of climate change into the economic sphere.”
The focus of contention at the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) was on limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees in line with the integral objective of the Paris Agreement. However, the 28th conference (COP28) was trickled with a lesser emphasis due to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stating this goal as nearly unattainable. According to Sweeney, it seems like the shift would now be towards controlling the increase below 2 degrees. The national goals, primarily, have been frequently breached.
In terms of significant advancements, COP29 in Baku does not hold much hope, as reported by Sweeney. The promotion of a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty is gaining momentum, even amongst the Irish local authorities. The 30th conference at Brazil is being anticipated as a considerable stage for progression.
Nevertheless, the strategies remain the same. In Sweeney’s opinion, the European Union’s leisurely commitment to implementing ‘carbon border adjustments’ could introduce the climate change issue into the economic sphere. On the other hand, a potential trade war has been suppressing discussions in this matter. The World Trade Organisation might be the platform through which COP progresses.
Sweeney comments on the slow progression COP has been making due to the requirement for unanimous agreement. This aspect, for the last 28 years, has led to COP’s inability to act assertively. Despite regular attempts, alterations to the voting system consistently fail.
COP’s increasing scale and logistical challenges faced at the upcoming meetings in Azerbaijan and Brazil make a case for smaller conventions. United Nations climate head, Simon Stiell, has voiced hopes of reducing the size of future COP’s, seeing as a larger audience does not always guarantee better results.
While addressing a crowd at the London-based Chatham House think-tank, Stiell stated how the size of the event doesn’t necessarily correspond with its quality. The UN climate change secretariat is currently in talks with the hosts of COP29 and COP30 about the issue. A representative from Climate Home News surveyed the planning in both Baku and Belém, the host cities for the 2024 and 2025 conferences.
The Azerbaijani government estimates that only around 40,000 people will visit the Baku Olympic Stadium this year, with provisions made for side events and negotiations in nearby temporary venues. Belém, hindered by its remote location, a scarcity of accommodation, and heavy traffic, could see attendance numbers severely restricted. The primary hub of accommodation is the city centre, accessible via a one-way, 45-minute journey on an old Soviet metro line from the stadium. For the upcoming Cop29 event in November, the government has instructed Baku hotels to refrain from opening bookings until further advisement.
Stiell has been engaging with Brazilian officials in active discussions to gauge possibilities of reducing the size of the Cop in Belém. Located near the Amazon rainforest in northern Brazil, Belém’s capacity to host around 40,000-50,000 participants raises concerns. As a city that doesn’t attract a large volume of tourists typically, its ability to manage such a crowd is questionable. Considering part of Cop30 there is under review by the federal government, with Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro as possible alternate options due to their larger capacities.
The logistical challenges posed by Belém’s geographical remoteness might result in a higher carbon footprint for foreign delegates. Even though Cops are known for leaving a significant carbon imprint, some researchers probing misinformation believe this negative aspect is often overemphasised by opposition to climate initiatives. In response to questions raised about the issue, Stiell commented that reports of private plane usage and Cops’ CO2 emissions are a common occurrence with every Cop. He added, staring pragmatism in the face, that the process requires relevant stakeholders to be present, regardless of the associating costs. It is vital to ensure those present contribute constructively to the proceedings.